Economic and Human Development Trajectories in Iraq (1980–2023): A Historical Data Analysis
الملخص
This study aims to examine the long-term trajectory of economic and human development in Iraq over the period 1980–2023 using a time-series econometric approach. The analysis employs the Vector Autoregression (VAR) model to explore the dynamic relationships among key macroeconomic and development indicators, including oil production, GDP per capita, unemployment, and the Human Development Index (HDI).
The empirical results reveal a significant bidirectional relationship between oil production and GDP per capita, indicating the central role of the oil sector in shaping Iraq’s economic performance. In contrast, the findings show a negative dynamic interaction between unemployment and the Human Development Index, suggesting that higher unemployment rates are associated with weaker human development outcomes.
Furthermore, the results indicate that oil shocks exert persistent effects on both economic growth and social development indicators. The impulse response functions and variance decomposition analysis provide additional evidence of structural vulnerabilities and cyclical fluctuations that have characterized Iraq’s economic trajectory, particularly in the post-conflict and post-invasion periods.
Overall, the study contributes to the empirical literature by offering a comprehensive long-term assessment of the interaction between economic performance and human development in a resource-dependent economy. The findings highlight the importance of economic diversification and structural reforms aimed at enhancing economic resilience and promoting inclusive development. The originality of this research lies in integrating economic and human development dimensions over four decades, capturing the cumulative
التنزيلات
المراجع
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