التنبؤ بالسلسلة الزمنية لجرائم القتل العمد في العراق باستعمال النموذج الهجين ARIMA-ANN
Abstract
تشير الأنشطة البحثية الحديثة في التنبؤ باستعمال الشبكات العصبية الاصطناعية (ANNs) إلى إمكانية أن تكون نماذج (ANNs) بديلاً جيداً للطرق الخطية التقليدية. في هذا البحث تم تطبيق أسلوب هجين يجمع بين نموذجي (ARIMA) و (ANN) للاستفادة من قوة النمذجة الخطية وغير الخطية، إذ تشير الاستنتاجات التي تم التوصل اليها من خلال تحليل مجموعة البيانات الخاصة بجرائم القتل العمد بسبب المشاحنات الآنية والنزاعات العشائرية في العراق للفترة من (2019-2023) الى فعالية النموذج الهجين (ARIMA-ANN) في تحسين دقة التنبؤ مقارنة بالنموذج الفردي.
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References
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